Saturday, December 7, 2019

THE TRUMP ERROR

You've heard of fireside chats? This is a fireside tirade. 
One of my faithful readers -- make that only faithful reader -- resides in the UK. And while he'd like to visit New York, he's quite understandably decided to stay away until Donald Trump is out of office. 

Unfortunately, Trump's eventual exit doesn't necessarily mean the end of the Trump era. With the important proviso BARRING UNFORSEEN CIRCUMSTANCES screaming in front of your eyes, here's my take on what could happen in the next few years.


The man who represents the USA on the world stage.
Trump is impeached by the House but exonerated by the Senate. Months later, he's re-elected, possibly by an even closer margin than in 2016. But a win's a win, especially for the Republicans, right?

Wrong! That scenario would be the worst thing that could happen to the Republicans -- and, other than lunatics like Devin Nunes and Jim Jordan, they know it. Even terminal suck-ups like Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham realize that a second Trump term would be like an explosion at a TNT factory during an 9.5 earthquake following a tsunami in a city suffering from a smallpox epidemic.

Actually, Godzilla had a better personality.
A re-elected Donald Trump would be emboldened Godzilla-like, if Godzilla pandered to racists, anti-Semites, and the 1%. No matter what he did or said, the Republicans would have to defend it.

Threaten to shut down the New York Times? Throwing a birthday party for Vladimir Putin in the Lincoln Bedroom? Musing "If you think about it, slavery wasn't such a bad thing for America"? I mean, you could hear him say that, y'know?

One day, someone in that crowd will write a law that
lands me in prison for writing this joke.
Of course you could! You know who else could? Republicans in Congress! And if they were to draw the line somewhere, they would immediately hear from their constituents who will stick by Trump no matter what. And many of those constituents will run against incumbents during the primary.

If the challenger wins the primary, they would likely lose the election. But if the incumbent wins the primary, there's a good chance they would lose the election, as many voters would stay home rather than pull the lever for somebody who didn't suck at the teat of Donald Trump 24/7 (which is as nauseating an image one could dream up).


Seccession doesn't seem like such a terrible idea now.
Want another scenario even worse for Republicans? If enough primary challengers win the election! For that will be when the cat is out of the bag: Yes, we're the party of racists, neo-Nazis, homophobes, xenophobes, and whatever other phobes you got laying around. 

How about one more possibility: Trump loses but refuses to concede! It's unlikely -- maybe -- but such an event would put the Republicans into an even tighter corner: How do we enforce the rule of law without pissing off the 38% of the population who would kill their children if it meant keeping Trump in office forever?  

And as long as we're asking questions, how will Fox News spin this as a good thing? The Murdoch boys are probably drawing up various battle plans already: Urge Trump to pack his bags for Mar-A-Lago? Or tell viewers to surround the White House with their AK-47s aimed straight at the Secret Service? 

Two meatheads = one very rancid stew.
Wouldn't you love to see how Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham spin this? Honest to God, it would be worth the drama. (For a preview, an op-ed in the December 6 New York Post was titled, "Foreigners Mocking President Trump Is A Sign He's Doing The Right Thing".)

No matter what happens, it will signal the implosion of the Republican Party as we thought we knew it pre-Trump. In fact, I predict there will be a movement to rename it the Trump Party (with the blessing -- or damnation -- of Trump himself). 

Trump voters salute the flag.
Shortly after the turn of the 21st-century, I was telling anyone who would listen (very few, I'm afraid) that Democrats would regret ever throwing in with the Clintons. It took almost two decades, but it eventually happened. 

The Republicans' day of reckoning regarding Donald Trump, however, will come much sooner, far more brutally, and with a longer-lasting effect. For the extreme right-wing will either be at the wheel of the party, or giving the directions to the driver, as it goes straight off the cliff.


Looking in the mirror.
The best thing that could happen to the Republicans in 2020 is if Trump is denied a second term. That way, they can tell their voters, "Trump was run out of office by the socialists! Re-elect us!"

That would work. The Republicans could sleep easy at night. Until Sean Hannity urges them to change the federal law preventing a president from serving more than two terms, just so Donald John Trump, Jr. can make his triumphant return to the White House. Mitch McConnell would love that.

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